By Segun Dipe
The June 20, 2026 governorship election in Ekiti State will not be won on noise. It will be won on record, structure, and reach. On those three metrics, Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji (BAO) holds decisive advantage.
Here is how BAO wins:
*1. By Record: Performance Becomes Persuasion*
Elections are referenda on incumbents. BAO’s first term (2022–2026) removed the biggest grievances in Ekiti politics:
Problem Before 2022 + BAO’s Answer = Electoral Impact
Salary/pension arrears: Paid as and when due + quarterly gratuity clearance + Civil servants + teachers + retirees = 180,000+ direct voting households.
Security-wise: Ekiti currently ranks the most secured state in Nigeria. Farmers, traders, commuters feel it daily.
Roads no longer abandoned. Rural roads: 16 LGAs + 22 LCDAs reached, Ado-Ekiti Ring Road, farm settlements opened. Farmers + transport unions + rural wards.
Opaque governance now made transparent. 39/39 Q4 2025, 100/100 Progressive Performer, #1 Subnational Audit Index. Elites, professionals, donors see credibility.
Youth engagement: 5,000+ trained with SMEDAN, 1,000 slots in commercial agric, Ekiti Knowledge Zone, Youth voting bloc, tech community.
Gender exclusion: Deputy Gov, SSG, Head of Service, key MDAs led by women. Women groups = 51% of registered voters.
*Bottom line:* BAO is not campaigning on promises. He is campaigning on pay slips, roads, and ratings. In a state where 62% of voters are in the public sector or depend on it, that is a locked base.
*2. By Structure:* Unity beats fragmentation.
Elections are won in units, not on TV.
BAO enters June 20 with:
1. *Party Unity*: APC in Ekiti is running “intra local government, intra ward, intra unit.” No parallel congresses, no court wars. The Federal High Court already struck out suits challenging his candidacy. The house is in order.
2. *Elite Consensus*: All living former governors – Niyi Adebayo, Segun Oni, Ayo Fayose, Kayode Fayemi – have endorsed BAO. That neutralizes the “ex-governors gang-up” factor that usually fractures Ekiti elections.
3. *Traditional & Religious Backing*: Traditional rulers and religious leaders have openly identified with BAO’s “Omoluabi” style. In Ekiti, palace and pulpit move votes quietly.
4. *Grassroots Machine*: “Ojuse BAO” funds from his salary have created direct touchpoints with market women, artisans, the sick, and students for 4 years. That is 48 months of retail politics money can’t buy in 3 weeks.
Rival parties are in court, in factions, or explaining why they are victims. BAO’s structure is in the streets, in the wards, in the units.
*3. By Strategy: Issue-Based vs Victimism*
Nigerian voters in 2026 are allergic to lamentation. BAO’s campaign theme – _“BAO has worked. BAO will do more”_ – frames the race correctly:
*BAO’s questions to voters*:
“Did you get your salary last month? Did the road to your farm open? Is your gratuity being paid? Then let us complete it.”
*Rivals’ questions to voters*:
“Are you angry? Were we cheated? Do you want to protest?”
Global economic situation has made Ekiti voters go for what they see, not what is boasted of. They will vote the man who paid them, not the man who pitied them.
*4. By Demographics: The Numbers Favour the Incumbent*
1. *Public Sector Bloc*: ∼180,000 workers + pensioners + dependents. BAO ended arrears culture. That bloc alone can deliver 60% turnout in their favour.
2. *Women*: 51% of PVC holders. _“Governor wey love us and see us as im mama”_ is not a slogan – it’s credit alert, health insurance, and deputy governor.
3. *Youths*: EKZ, 1,000 agric slots, IT training. Plus kegites’ _“Comradic Governor wey street don confam.”_
4. *Rural Ekiti*: Power restoration + rural roads = farmers can move produce. Rival parties will find it tough campaigning in a farm settlement BAO opened.
Target: Win all 177 Wards, minimum 500,000 votes. With 988,923 registered voters in 2023 and increased CVR, the path is arithmetic, not miracle.
*5. By Contrast: Humility vs Arrogance*
Ekiti has tested both styles.
_Arrogance_: Owed salaries and called it normal. Ruled from the palace. Blamed the people.
_Humility_: Pays and says ‘Thank You’. Serves from the street. Funds _Ojuse_ from personal salary. Says “no victor, no vanquished” after court wins.
On June 20, the ballot asks: “Do you want more of the last 4 years?” For most Ekitis, the answer is a resounding “Yes.”
*6. By Momentum: Court Wins to Ground Game*
1. *Legal*: Candidacy affirmed. No post-primary distraction.
2. *Narrative*: “BAO is taking over from BAO” – stability message.
3. *Closing*: All former governors, all traditional rulers, all major unions signed on. Opposition is campaigning against a consensus.
*How the Election Will Be Won: Ward by Ward*
– *8am–10am*: Public servants, pensioners, women vote early and vote BAO. That sets the tone.
– *10am–12 noon*: Rural Ekiti comes out on roads BAO built, to protect salaries BAO pays.
– *12 noon–12:30pm*: Youths lock urban units. Party agents have result sheets because structure is intact.
– *By 2-3pm*: Voting has be concluded in 177 wards, elections have been counted. Results are being awaited. Performance has defeated grievance.
*Bottom line:*
Victimism fills press conferences. Governance fills ballot boxes.
Arrogance builds walls. Humility builds bridges.
Rivals will share complaints. BAO will share votes.
*On June 20, Ekiti will re-elect evidence.*
*BAO has worked. BAO will do more.*
*BAO is taking over from BAO.*
Know this, know peace.
Segun Dipe writes as the Publicity Secretary of the APC in Ekiti State.